{"id":4440,"date":"2022-07-12T19:01:00","date_gmt":"2022-07-12T19:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pwer.com\/?p=4440"},"modified":"2022-07-12T19:01:22","modified_gmt":"2022-07-12T19:01:22","slug":"the-economics-of-healthcare-part-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pwer.com\/?p=4440","title":{"rendered":"The Economics of Healthcare – Part 3"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Economics of Healthcare Revisited July 2022, Part 3<\/strong><\/p>\n

On Friday, July 8, 2022, some big news was headlined on CNBC.com[1]<\/a>, \u201cPayrolls increased 372,000 in June, more than expected, as jobs market defies recession fears.\u201d The fascinating part of this is not just the growth in employment, but also how different it was from the other months that \u201cleisure + hospitality\u201d had the biggest gains.\u00a0 This time, it was back to the standard that \u201chealthcare + social assistance\u201d lead the growth, though growth in the \u201cProfessional\u201d category and in \u201cLeisure + hospitality\u201d were not far behind. Economists usually say that all \u201crecessions\u201d are triggered differently and look different.\u00a0 Due to the demographics, this one will clearly look different.\u00a0 In part, there are more than 1.8 jobs for every 1 that is looking for a job, and we are close however, not yet to the levels of total employment pre-pandemic, though we have added millions to the workforce.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

In Part 2<\/a> of last week\u2019s blog, we ended the discussion noting that healthcare has been the second best (as shown in a graphic representation of the Standard and Poor’s 500 index stocks categorized by sectors and industries).<\/p>\n

We also opened the window to Wall Street last week, and today, we will look at two leading Wall Street bank\u2019s view on healthcare, as well as one international bank on the global recession risk. First, we\u2019ll discuss the later in this case.\u00a0 Nomura Securities, a firm based in Tokyo, Japan, who says \u201cmajor economies are headed into recession in the next 12 months; \u201cIn addition to the U.S, Nomura expects recessions in the euro area, the U.K., Japan, South Korea, Australia and Canada next year,\u201d the brokerage firm said in a research note. [2]<\/a>\u201d They further added, \u201cThe U.S. will fall into recession \u2014 so negative quarter-on-quarter GDP growth starting in Q4 this year. It is going to be a shallow recession but a long one. We have it lasting for five quarters in a row.\u201d<\/p>\n

Our suspicion is that they are delayed in their assumptions as we believe that we are in a recession now, and we\u2019re just on the edge in the U.S. If we are up less than 1%, we would still be down for the first six (6) months of 2022, and it looks like there is little that will improve for the third quarter of 2022. So, much more likely, we are in a full recession this year, and if there is no Black Swan, 2023 should be a recovery year.<\/p>\n

In a world of ever larger storm clouds, the continuing good news is for healthcare. Recently, Bank of America Securities Global Research<\/em> released a report that was a \u201cSector Focus Point\u201d on healthcare. The title of the report was \u201cHealth Care deep dive: 9 reasons it\u2019s our favorite overweight\u201d<\/em><\/strong>. The report went on to list those nine (9) reasons, some of those points were telling, such as – \u201cmost upbeat outlook\u201d, \u201cMergers and Acquisitions\u201d, \u201cDemand.\u201d They noted aging demographics, and \u201calpha without beta\u201d noting that healthcare was idiosyncratic, story specific and a boon during periods of macro uncertainty<\/em><\/strong>. Our favorite would have been the 10th<\/sup> point however, they did not make it that way, and just said, \u201cWant tech with less hair? Buy Health Care.\u201d<\/p>\n

As I have noted in Part 1<\/a>, my original purpose to get into healthcare was economics however, as fate would have it, it has become my own personal passion for many decades. How do we make it better? Many people dabble in things, but I jump in with both feet. While securing over 40 licensed patents and patents pending, I\u2019ve been in the middle of delivery of care running primary care companies.\u00a0 Additionally, I\u2019ve been on the services side owning and operating laboratories and imaging centers, and most recently, building multiple healthcare technology applications. These experiences have convinced me that healthcare is the number one industry in America driven by the heavy retirement states like my own here in Florida. Despite being the number one industry, healthcare has not hit its peak, or apex, which may be a decade away. This makes healthcare an incredibly stable and resilient industry to not only work in, but also invest in.<\/p>\n

In Part 4, we will talk about healthcare spending in 2021, and the trends for the first six (6) months of 2022.\u00a0 We\u2019ll also dive into more reports from banks and healthcare futurists who are finally \u201cgetting healthcare!\u201d<\/p>\n

-Noel J. Guillama, Chairman<\/p>\n

[1]<\/a> https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2022\/07\/08\/jobs-report-june-2022-.html<\/a><\/p>\n

[2]<\/a> https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2022\/07\/05\/us-uk-europe-japan-will-be-in-recession-over-next-12-months-nomura-.html<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Economics of Healthcare Revisited July 2022, Part 3 On Friday, July 8, 2022, some big news was headlined on CNBC.com[1], \u201cPayrolls increased 372,000 in June, more than expected, as jobs market defies recession fears.\u201d The fascinating part of this is not just the growth in employment, but also how different it was from the other months that \u201cleisure + hospitality\u201d had the biggest gains.\u00a0 This time, it was back to the standard that \u201chealthcare + social assistance\u201d lead the growth, though growth in the \u201cProfessional\u201d category and in \u201cLeisure […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":4441,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4440","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/pwer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/AdobeStock_341151828.jpeg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/pwer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4440","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/pwer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/pwer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pwer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pwer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4440"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/pwer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4440\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4442,"href":"https:\/\/pwer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4440\/revisions\/4442"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pwer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/4441"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/pwer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4440"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pwer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4440"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pwer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4440"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}